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The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 85.8%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 14.2%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 85.8%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 10.5%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 67.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22%.In the shooting of the CEO of UNH insurance business, the hearing of the suspect Luigi Mangione (illegal gun possession) is scheduled for next Monday (December 16th).The application of AI continues to deepen, and the prosperity of the sector continues to improve. Recently, a number of artificial intelligence companies have intensively released their latest products, and the related concept sectors in the A-share market are active. Wind data shows that Wande's artificial intelligence concept index has risen in six of the nine trading days since November 27, with an interval increase of 12.64%. Analysts believe that overseas AI applications are growing strongly, and the growth potential of domestic AI applications is expected to explode. On the one hand, the performance of the core AI application companies in US stocks has grown rapidly, further strengthening the AI narrative logic; On the other hand, domestic AI application scenarios are more extensive and have achieved good application results in many fields such as education and office. It is suggested to focus on the growth and liquidity of domestic AI applications. (CSI)

What signal does the return of monetary policy to "moderate easing" release? Experts explained that the Politburo meeting on December 9 specifically pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented next year. Experts said that the new tone of monetary policy is a change worthy of attention in this Politburo meeting. Experts said that the tone of China's monetary policy had mainly emphasized "stability" for many years before, and this adjustment was "moderately loose", which was related to the overall domestic and international economic situation. After combing the previous statements, the reporter found that the last time "moderately loose" was used to describe monetary policy, it was around 2008-2010. Since then, from 2011 to the present, monetary policy has been using "steady". This adjustment is the first time in more than a decade. Experts said that this adjustment of the tone of monetary policy is also further strengthening the expected management and sending a clear monetary policy signal to the market. Experts said that it is expected that in the future, monetary policy will continue to strengthen its support for major strategies, key areas and weak links. (CCTV News)The suspect involved in the murder of new york, CEO of American insurance giant, was arrested in Pennsylvania. According to foreign media reports, a 26-year-old man was arrested in Altoona, Pennsylvania on Monday, and the new york police regarded him as the person involved in the shooting of Brian Thompson, a joint health insurance executive, in Manhattan. Thompson, 50, died after being shot in the back and legs outside the Hilton Hotel in downtown new york. Police said it was a targeted murder. The man named Luigi Mangione was recognized by employees while eating at a local McDonald's restaurant. The police said that he had a declaration, multiple false identities, an untraceable so-called "ghost gun" and a silencer with him. A person familiar with the matter said that the man carried with him a declaration against capitalism and criticizing medical enterprises for seeking profits.Bonds are almost in a bearish state. Many brokers expect the Bank of China to cut interest rates next year, and the yield of 10-year government bonds may be around 1.8%. According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, from the perspective of many institutions in 2025, the central bank's interest rate cuts will continue. Many institutions believe that in this context, the yield of 10-year government bonds will also fall to around 1.8%. Tan Yiming, a fixed-income analyst at Minsheng Securities, believes that this year's monetary policy framework reform has been promoted, and the 7-day reverse repo rate, as the main policy interest rate, has become the starting point of the interest rate transmission mechanism. It is expected that there will be one or two interest rate cuts in 2025, and the 7-day reverse repo rate will be lowered by about 20 to 40 basis points, and the 10-year government bond yield will be 1.7% to 1.8%.

Reminder: Please pay attention to it during the day (the following are all Beijing time). ① It is possible to release the total amount of M2 money supply, new RMB loans and financing in China in November; ② The time to be determined is China's import and export and trade account in November; ③ At 11: 30, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced the interest rate resolution; ④ At 12: 30, Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Brock held a press conference on monetary policy; ⑤ 15:00 Germany's November CPI final value; ⑥ At 01:00 the next day, us energy information administration (EIA) released the monthly short-term energy outlook report (STEO); ⑦ At 05:30 the next day, american petroleum institute (API) released the weekly crude oil inventory report.Analyst: At present, it is not necessary for the central bank to cut interest rates again. Chen Xi, chief analyst of open source securities, believes that it is not necessary for the central bank to cut interest rates again at present, and the bond market is expected to show a volatile market in the future. On the one hand, the central bank has not substantially lowered the policy interest rate. On the other hand, the policy has turned to finance and real estate, and the current economy is already stabilizing and recovering. The central bank will not cut interest rates again in the short term.National Development and Reform Commission: China's investment has considerable potential space. Chengfeng Zhao, deputy director of the Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said on the large-scale all-media talk show of "China Economic Roundtable" that China's investment has considerable potential space from the perspective of promoting the development of new quality productive forces, building a modern industrial system, and improving China's infrastructure and public services to meet people's needs for a better life. First, there is great potential for investment demand in scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading. On the one hand, driven by the goal of "double carbon", China's green infrastructure, green energy, green life and other green transformation areas have broad investment space. On the other hand, in line with the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, the investment scale of emerging and future industries such as quantum technology, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy and aerospace in China is expected to maintain rapid growth. Second, there are still many shortcomings and weaknesses in the infrastructure field that need to be filled. To strengthen and expand the digital economy, it is urgent to appropriately advance the layout of new infrastructure such as cloud computing and data centers. Third, there is broad investment space in social and people's livelihood. (china securities journal)